有限机会的公平分配：中国农民子女市民化的水平与模式

本文将农民、农民工以及已经获得非农户籍的“新市民”的“农民子女”作为分析对象，以农民子女跨越城乡二元系统的市民化进程来透视中国社会系统的开放性与社会分层流动机制。基于CGSS调查数据等资料的分析表明，改革开放以来，中国农民的职业非农化水平快速提高，但身份市民化机会长期保持不变，两者之间的断裂日益扩大。这种断裂不仅表现在水平上，也表现在分配机制上。职业非农化的途径日益多元化，教育的作用相对弱化，家庭背景有着相对重要的作用。而户籍非农化（身份市民化）因升学之外的传统途径不断收缩，教育成为影响户籍非农化的主要因素，从而保持了有限的户籍非农化机会在农民子女间分配的公平性。

Equal Distribution of Limited Chances: A Study of the Citizenship Shifts of Chinese Peasants’ Children

This paper argues that social mobility and stratification of peasants’children can be a good indicator measuring social openness of China under a rapid industrialization and urbanization circumstance. In an urbanization framework, their social mobility can be operationalized as transition to non agricultural occupations and change to urban household registration (hukou) holders. Peasants’children here include farmers, rural migrants and those who have changed their hukou type from rural to urban. They have similar original social backgrounds but are differentiated by occupations and household registration types. Based on national representative samples of this population, the paper tries to provide a more complete picture about the openness of Chinese society than conventional studies of occupational mobility based on city samples and labor studies on migrant workers did. CGSS data is used to describe the probability of occupational transition and citizenship transition of peasants’children in different periods and ages. It finds that the occupational transition pace is quite faster than the transition of citizenship. The probability for peasants’children to earn urban citizenship is stably low. The gap between occupational transition and citizenship transition is becoming larger and larger. It also finds that the traditional channels through which peasants’children can become registered urban citizens are becoming narrower. The rapid expansion of urbanization brings in new chances and channels. Based on these, several hypotheses about the changing of mobility mechanism are developed. The main one is that the distribution of citizenship transition chances is relatively fair and equal. These hypotheses then are tested by comparing the regression coefficients of factors influencing these transitions in different job cohorts with CGSS data. It shows that the occupational transition is highly influenced by the family background. The effect of education is becoming smaller and smaller. Meanwhile, the distribution of limited citizenship transition chances is relatively fair. Education is always the main factor that differentiates the probability of citizenship transition. It concludes that the openness of Chinese society is a complex issue. It is quite open in terms of the Chinese peasants’ children’s opportunities to find a non agricultural job. But the process is highly influenced by the family background and parents’social economic status, which is especially the case for getting good jobs. Meanwhile there are limited chances for peasants’children to change their citizenship type, but the distribution of the chance is relatively stable and fair. The speeding up of “citizenization of people” (changing their household registration type, giving them equal urban citizenship and public welfare) driven by the government of China will lead to expansion of citizenship transition chance, but the core of openness, fairness, is still a problem.