The method of measuring probability of the annual fertility]

At the present time, under the guidance of national planning, population control is the most important theme of China's population policy. In order to realize the national goal of controlling population growth, family planning should be worked out at local levels. How to achieve a reasonable population planning norm at a local level is a very crucial problem in family planning work. Up to the present time, various methods have been used to measure the probability of the annual fertility. In his report, the author provides a new formula to calculate the probability of the annual fertility. Based upon this formula, we may calculate the number of planned birth for a certain year and its fertility. From the figure we may set a reasonable goal according to population policy and actual population components. This formula is suitable for use in annual planning, as well as short-term or long-term population planning.