| Abstract: | A review of past population projection errors is presented as a means for constructing confidence intervals for future projections. The author first defines a statistic to measure projection errors independent of the size of population and the length of the projection period. A sample of U.S. and U.N. projections is used to show that the distributions of components of the error statistic are relatively stable. This information is then used to construct confidence intervals for the U.S. population up to the year 2000. |
