| Abstract: | In addition to emphasizing that the kind of migration characteristic of the 1960s between Mediterranean and western European countries has serious implications for the former, this discussion explores the more questionable consequence of "lassez-faire" emigration for employment and development; proposes a method of analysis--the human resources approach--which facilitates insight into undesirable development, incipient or future bottlenecks, and how far they may be caused by outmigration or could be removed by the purposeful organization of return migration; and raises for examination various principles and instruments of emigration policy connecting international movements of human resources with development in general and employment policy and manpower planning in particular. Wherever migrant workers go abroad temporarily, which has been claimed to be the feature of Mediterranean western European migrations, they are not totally lost to their country of origin. They may be considered to remain part of the national labor force. Consequently, the human resources available for the country's development (hereafter termed the "national" labor force) comprise both the domestic population and the temporarily absent population. Migration streams may consist of seasonal (S), temporary (T), and permanent (P) workers according to the intentions of the migrants or their legal status. To obtain the effective numbers of S, T, and P migrants, it is necessary to weigh the figures of intending S, T, and P migrants with the actual emigration experience of each category. Applying hypothetical proportions to the known S (15%), T (80%), and P (5%) figures for Yugoslavia would give the following effective rates (as percentages of total outmigration: S = 13.5%; T = 49.25%; and P = 37.25%. In the case of Yugoslavia, which may be considered fairly representative, the temporarily absent workforce would be less than 2/3 of the annual outflow postulated. Thus, 1 in 3 migrants leaving Yugoslavia is irrelevant for manpower planning purposes. Net outmigration at seasonal peaks or throughout the year reduces the available labor supply directly. It also does so disproportionately, for it involves the most able bodied persons. To obtain positive effects, the contribution of migrants to the home country's economy would have to be larger than before migration. The question is what effect does foreign emigration have on the spatial, economic, and social modernization of the rural sector. Most Mediterranean countries are characterized by widely scattered settlements, many of which are unviable and costly to service. The economic organization of the rural sector may be affected through labor shortages inducing wage pressure and mechanization. The traditional social organization of the rural sector may receive jobs from outmigration that could speed up its replacement by modern structures. |
