| 三峡库区人口承载力的动力学模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 唐晓平,舒克盛. 三峡库区人口承载力的动力学模型研究[J]. 南方人口, 2007, 22(4): 60-63 |
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| 作者姓名： | 唐晓平 舒克盛 |
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| 作者单位： | 重庆工商大学长江上游经济研究中心,重庆,400067;重庆工商大学长江上游经济研究中心,重庆,400067 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文通过对人口承载力研究方法的回顾与对比,并结合三峡库区的现实条件,选择了适合三峡库区的非线性研究模型.该模型除了能对人口——土地资源系统进行动态预测外,还能分析其动力学关系.通过这一模型的预测发现三峡库区现有人口大于其人口承载力,指出必须进行移民拓展,即到2020年前应在现有基础上增加移民.
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| 关 键 词： | 人口承载力 非线性模型 承载比 承载差 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-1613(2007)04-0060-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-09-03 |
A Study on the Dynamic Model of the Population-carrying Capacity in the Region of Three Gorges of the Yangtze River |
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| TANG Xiaoping,SHU Kesheng. A Study on the Dynamic Model of the Population-carrying Capacity in the Region of Three Gorges of the Yangtze River[J]. South China Population, 2007, 22(4): 60-63 |
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| Authors: | TANG Xiaoping SHU Kesheng |
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| Abstract: | Through reviewing and contrasting the research methods of population-supporting capacity and considering the realistic conditions of Three Gorges Reservoir Region of the Yangtze River,this article chooses the nonlinear model which is suitable for this region.The model can be used to estimate the population-land-resource system dynamically as well as analyze the dynamic relations in this system.Adopting it,we can find that the existing population scale is larger than the best population scale defined by population-supporting capacity.Furthermore,immigrating more people is advisable before 2020. |
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| Keywords: | population-supporting capacity the nonlinear model capacity ratio capacity difference |
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