贷款规模管理的新形式及其影响--1996-2004 年上半年货币扩张的因素分析

1996-2003年我国央行基础货币和准备金率均逐年提高,2004年上半年则下降。中央银行对基础货币的管理与稳定宏观经济的目标不完全一致,对法定准备率的调整实际上也不起作用。由于存在行政关系,通过控制商业银行贷款规模,中央银行也参与超额准备率的决定。国有商业银行具有降低超额准备率的倾向。中央银行对商业银行贷款规模的管理成为制约超额准备率、实际准备率的主导因素。因此,我国货币供给具有外生性。但是,中央银行对贷款规模的管理会对商业银行的经营状况造成不利影响,并推迟国有商业银行市场化改革的进程。

New Forms of the Management to Loan Size and the Consequences--A Factor Analysis of Money Expanding from 1996 to the Second Quarter of 2004

In China, monetary base of the Central Bank and rate of reserves boomed up year after year from 1996 to 2003. They, however, went down in the first two quarters of 2004. There has been some discordance in between the management of monetary base of the Central Bank and the objective of stabilizing macro-economy. Indeed, the Central Bank failed in adjusting the rate of required reserves. For the reasons of administration, the Central Bank also plays an important role in deciding the rate of excess reserves through controlling the loan size of business banks. The state-owned business banks tend to diminish the rate of excess reserves. The Central Bank' s management of the loan size of business banks becomes a leading factor that conditions the rate of excess reserves and the rate of real reserves. In China, the supply of money is, therefore, exogenous. But such management of the loan size will be very unfavorable to the operation of business banks and retard their marketing processes.