ICT投资、偏向性技术变化与全要素生产率

本文从偏向性技术变化视角出发,建立包含ICT资本、非ICT资本和劳动的平行三要素供给面方程系统模型,在要素增强型技术进步模式可变的条件下,分析我国工业ICT资本偏向性技术变化、ICT资本和非ICT资本偏向性技术变化一致性、ICT 资本偏向性技术变化和ICT资本深化一致性对全要素生产率(TFP)的影响。研究结果表明:2000—2016年,在我国ICT投资快速增长的背景下,ICT 资本对非ICT资本和劳动反而出现双重偏向性技术下滑,且ICT资本偏向性技术变化和ICT资本深化方向不一致,二者共同抑制了TFP提升;而ICT资本和非ICT资本偏向性技术变化一致性促进了TFP提升。据此,我国工业数字化转型中,应当通过提高ICT投资与数字技术发展路线的匹配度来扭转ICT资本偏向性技术下滑,并进一步提高偏向性技术变化一致性,同时增强ICT投资的技术适宜性,从而改善ICT资本偏向性技术变化与ICT资本深化的一致性。

ICT Investment,Biased Technology Change and Total Factor Productivity

From the perspective of biased technology change, we develop a three-factor supply-side equation system with ICT capital, non-ICT capital and labor included. Allowing flexible factor enhanced technological progress, we analyze the impact of China’ s industrial ICT capital biased technology change as well as its consistency between ICT capital and non-ICT capital, and the consistency between the biased technology change and ICT capital deepening on TFP. The results show that against the background of the rapid growth of China’s ICT investment from 2000 to 2016, the technology bias is directed to non-ICT capital and labor. The ICT capital biased technology change is inconsistent with the ICT capital deepening. They jointly suppress the TFP. The consistency of the biased technology change between the ICT capital and non-ICT capital promotes the TFP. For China’ s industrial digitization, we suggest improving the matching of ICT investment with the digital technology roadmap to reverse the ICT capital biased technology decline and further improving the consistency. We also suggest that the appropriate technology improves the consistency between ICT capital biased technology change and ICT capital deepening.