世界海运网络演变及未来发展趋势研究

世界海运网络从零星的贸易路线到遍布全球的贸易网络的形成,经历了长达5000多年的时间,其发展历程可分为四个阶段:初现期、均衡发展期、剧变期及平稳发展期。本文以1763年为重要分界线,从地理位置、资源优势、政治状况、航海技术、供需定律、航运中心的形成等六个方面,分析了世界海运网络的演变过程,进而对世界海运网络的演变趋势进行了分析和预测,认为亚太地区有望成为新的航运中心。作为主要海运大国的中国,更应当采取积极的发展策略,应对世界海运网络演变所带来的巨大变革。

Research on the Evolution and Future Tendency of Global Shipping Network

Global shipping network has experienced a history of up to 5000 years, from the sporadic trade routes to the worldwide trade network. Throughout the course of the development, it can be divided into four stages： the early stage, balanced development period, upheaval period and peaceful development period. The article regards 1763 as an important dividing line and discusses the development process before 1763 in detail, and then analyzes the evolution of Global shipping network from six aspects, namely location, resources, political conditions, marine technology, the law of supply and demand, and shipping center formation. On the basis of the research, we predict the evolution of the world shipping network after 1763, and point out that Asia- Pacific region is expected to be the new Shipping Centre. However, China, as one of its Marine Powers, should actively take relevant development strategies to deal with the great changes caused by the evolution of the network.