大学生职业生涯初期就业不稳定性预警——以天津市大型民营企业为例

发达国家成熟的就业研究体系中，就业不稳定性研究的地位甚至超过失业研究，“就业稳定性”逐渐成为大学生择业的重要因素。以天津市大型民营企业中处于职业生涯初期的大学生员工为研究对象，建立大学生就业不稳定因素层次划分模型，通过问卷形式，邀请专家学者以及企业自身管理人员对影响就业稳定性指标赋予权重，结合企业实际状况，进行模糊综合评判，预测企业大学生就业不稳定性的危机等级，以及哪些层面是企业下一阶段预控的重点。

Early-Warning of Employment Instability of College Graduates in Early Career -Take the Example of Tianjin Big-Scale Private Enterprises

In the mature employment research system among the developed countries, the status of the research on employment instability even surpass the status of the research on unemployment. Therefore, the employment stability is gradually becoming an overwhelmingly significant factor in undergraduate＇s occupational selection. Having chosen some large-scale priv,ate enterprises in Tianjin as the subject investigated, the thesis hasestablished models which stand for the distinguished levels that have been divided by the employment instability. Moreover, it has adopted the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method by means of questionnaire, and has invitedexperts, scholars and managers of enterprises to give weight to the indexes that have influenced the employment stability, carry on comprehensive evaluations combined with the actual situation of enterprises, and forecast thecrisis level of employment instability of the enterprise＇ undergraduates and the pre-control focal point in the next stage.