区域文化对婚姻稳定性的影响:基于跨省流动人口的研究

本文利用2013—2015年我国跨省流动人口数据，从动态的视角考察了流入地文化和流出地文化对流动人口婚姻稳定性的影响。数据结果显示，高离婚率地区形成了一种强势的离婚文化，无论是从低离婚率地区流入到高离婚率地区，还是从高离婚率地区流入到低离婚率地区，曾在高离婚率地区生活过的跨省流动人口都会保持较高的离婚概率。离婚文化对个人行为的影响表现为继承效应和浸染效应：继承效应即人们迁移到一个新的文化环境中，原有的离婚文化会持续产生影响；浸染效应即人们迁移到一个新的区域，会受到新接触的离婚文化的影响。年轻人更容易受到新迁入地文化浸染效应的影响，而年龄较大的人更容易受到流出地文化继承效应的影响。在新环境中，男性更容易接受新的文化，而女性则更多地保留了原有文化特征。

The Influence of Regional Divorce Culture on Marital Stability: A Study Based on Trans-Provincial Migrants

Using the data from the Inter-Provincial Migration Survey (2013-2015),this paper examines the impact of regional divorce culture on migrants' marital stability from a dynamic perspective. The study finds that high divorce rate regions created a strong culture of divorce acceptance that influence both in-flow and out-flow migrants. With control for major confounders,the instrumental variable approach analysis shows that,1) for every additional divorce case (per 100 couples) in the destination area,the probability of divorce increased by 1.38 to 1.65 percentage points among in-flow migrants,and 2) for every additional couple divorce (per 100 couples) in the area of origin,the probability of divorce increased by 1.32 to 1.91 percentage points among out-flow migrants. Further,the regression results show that the influence of divorce culture on individual behavior is characterized by inheritance and immersion effect. Inheritance effect is reflected in the continuous impact of the original divorce culture among migrants who have settled in a new place. Immersion effect shows migrants assimilate themselves into the divorce culture of the new place. Young migrants are more likely to be affected by the cultural immersion effect,while older people are more vulnerable to the cultural inheritance effect. The study also shows that in a new environment,men are more receptive to new things,while women are more likely to retain their original cultural identity.