中美经贸关系现状及经济发展差距的基本判断

2017年以来,中美两国之间发生了激烈的经贸摩擦,对两国宏观经济和社会福利产生一定的负面影响。中国社会科学院工业经济研究所与《中国经济学人》(China Economist)杂志从中美经贸关系现状、中美经贸摩擦影响、中美两国经济发展差距、美国总统大选等角度分析中国经济学人对中美经贸关系及经济发展差距的认知和判断。调查发现,经济学人认为虽然中美经贸摩擦短时间内难以消除,但中美两国的经济互补性仍很强,贸易增长空间较大,未来发展方向一定是合作与竞争并有。经济学人预判,今后20年中美两国的经济增速分别为4.8%和2.1%,中国将于2034年追平美国经济总量,将于2043年追平美国制造业总体技术水平,将于2072年追平美国人均GDP,实现赶超。

Judgment about current situation of Sino-US economic and trade relations and economic development gap: analysis based on questionnaire survey by China Economist

There has been a fierce economic and trade friction between China and the United States since 2017, which has had negative impacts on the macro-economy and social welfare of both countries. The Institute of Industrial Economics of CASS and China Economist carried out surveys about the situation of the Sino-US economic and trade relations, the impact of the Sino-US trade frictions, the Sino-US economic development gap, and the US president election, etc., which is to study the awareness and judgment of Chinese economists on Sino-US economic and trade relationships and development gap. Most respondents think that it is difficult to eliminate the friction in a short period of time, but the economic complementarities between China and the United States are still very strong, and there is a large space for trade growth. The future development direction must be cooperation and competition for both countries. Respondents predict that the economic growth rates of China and the United States will be 4.8% and 2.1% respectively in the next 20 years; both countries will tie on the size of their economy in 2034 and will tie on the overall technical level of manufacturing in 2043. They will tie on the per capita GDP in 2072, and thereafter China will surpass the USA.