中国多支柱养老保险制度发展路径探讨

旨在通过梳理多支柱理论的发展与实践，总结OECD国家经验及在利用生命周期理论进行精算的基础上，推演中国多支柱养老保险制度的发展路径。分析显示：第一支柱是第二、第三支柱发展的外部条件和制约因素，中国特有的经济、人口与制度发展路径，使公立养老金制度短期内对其他支柱形成了较强的制约作用，因而中国养老保险制度体系发展宜采用多阶段策略，首先完善第一支柱，同时扩展第二、第三支柱，做好应对未来制度变革的准备。

Discussion on the Way of Multi-Pillar Pension System in China

The article aimed to illustrate the way of multi-pillar pension system in China by analyze the multi-pillar theory, calculations based on life cycle theory and practices in OECD countries. The experiences in OECD were shown as such:the public pension system was the constraint factor of the other l old age insurance system. While in China, the special age structure and pension system made the reform less likely happen in recent years. At last, the author draws conclusions:the special situation in China makes the first pillar as the constraint factor for the others, but the three pillars will fuse together in the future.