“全面二孩”后的人口预期与政策展望

“全面二孩”生育政策究竟能对人口发展产生怎样的影响？文章假定今后维持“全面二孩”人口政策不变进行了人口预测。结果可知：城乡全面放开二孩政策并不会带来出生率的猛增和人口数量的剧烈反弹，高峰期最多可以新增出生人口400万；政策调整会提高人口峰值，有利于改善人口结构，延缓劳动力供给的衰减速度，但作用微乎其微。从其他国家的人口发展经验看，生育率的下降趋势似乎不可避免。因此，“全面二孩”并不是生育政策调整的终点，应继续监测生育水平，进一步调整生育政策；建立和完善“家庭友好”政策体系；从社会体制和经济体制应对负面影响。

Population Expectations and Policy Prospects After the Universal Two-child Policy

China’s population trend would be actively addressed by the universal two-child policy. This paper gives the population prediction based on the constant population policy. The conclusions are as follows:The new policy will not bring a sharp rebound in fertility and population size, the peak difference of newborn population before and after the policy will be over 4 million; policy adjustment will improve the peak population and structure, delay the labor supply decay, but a negligible role. From the experience of other countries, the trend in fertility decline seems inevitable. Therefore, the universal two-child policy is not the end of the policy adjustment. It will continue to monitor fertility level, further adjust the population policy; establish and improve the “family friendly” policy system; cope with the negative effects from the social system and the economic system.