上海市税收收入与经济增长的相关分析

本文采用动态计量经济学研究方法，运用虚拟变量和广义最小二乘模型，以上海市1949--2005年的数据为样本．对上海市税收收入与经济增长相关性进行实证分析表明，上海市经济增长与税收收入增长基本协调，但是，在上海市经济高速增长的同时，也存在着税收超常增长的态势。这一方面说明税务部门征收管理工作的进步，另一方面也说明税源结构并不合理。为此，应继续加强征收工作；优化产业布局；建立高效税源管理体系。

Correlative Analysis of Tax Revenue Income and Economic Growthin Shanghai Municipality

The relationship of tax revenue income and economic growth is a hot topic in finance. This paper makes an analysis on the correlation of tax revenue income and economic growth by using dynamic econometrical analysis with the data from 1949 to 2005 year of Shanghai municipality. And comes to conclusions that both the economic and tax income is high comparing with the growth of it in shanghai, h shows the increasing efficiency of tax affair department. On the other hand,it discloses that the irrationaltax source structure exists. Regarding these issues, this paper gives some strategies, such as to enhance tax levy, optimize income structure, reinforce industry distribution, build up administration systems of tax source in high efficiency.