经济周期的投资与消费生产的序贯博弈理论

解释经济周期的关键是要证明:科技创新或者固定资本品的再生产是不连续的。在生产上,一种情况是“投资增加引起消费增加,消费增加引起投资增加”的“正和”局面;一种是投资和消费对立变动的“零和”局面。在“零和”局面中,冗余性资源对快速生产出投资品具有很大的重要性。由于固定资本品的生产实质是一种间接性的生产,在其完成后,冗余性资源可转而用来生产消费品,这就解释了经济周期。

The Sequential move Game Theory on Economy Cycle

The key point of explaining the existence of business cycle is to show that there is discontinued reproduction of fixed capital goods. There are two situations in production: one is the non zero sum situation that means the increase of capital production generates the increase of consumption production and vice versa. The other is zero sum situation that means the increase of capital production decrease the consumption production. In the later case the retained resources is of most important, t can be turned to produce consumption goods after the capital production an indirect production has been completed. That explains the business cycle.