时空差异下水资源对城镇化进程的约束效应研究

通过构建阻力模型，利用中国2000—2018年省级面板数据探究水资源对城镇化进程的约束效应。研究发现：空间差异下，城镇化进程受水资源约束存在差异，西北地区和湖北、江西、北京、上海等地受水资源约束明显；时间差异下，水资源对城镇化进程的约束效应存在阶段性，对经济发达地区的约束效应减弱或不存在，对经济欠发达地区的约束效应则增强。水资源约束效应还受人口结构、教育水平等因素影响，水资源对基础设施完善的城镇影响较小。新型城镇化建设应注重城市内涵，协调不同规模城市的发展；提高全民受教育水平和节水护水意识，降低水资源对城镇化进程的约束效应，形成以人为核心的新型城镇化建设新格局。

Constraint effect of water resource on urbanization under spatial and temporal differences

This research explores the restrictive effect of water resources on the urbanization process by constructing a resistance model and using data from provinces throughout the country from 2000 to 2018. Under the spatial difference, there are differences in the urbanization of provinces subject to water resource constraints. The provinces subject to water resource constraints are mainly concentrated in the northwest region and Hubei, Jiangxi, Beijing, Shanghai and other provinces. Under the time difference, the restrictive effect of water resources on the urbanization process has stages, the restrictive effect on economically developed areas is weakened or does not exist, and the economically underdeveloped areas are strengthened. Expansion analysis, the water resource constraint effect is also affected by factors such as population structure and education level, and water resources have less impact on cities and towns with complete infrastructure. Therefore, in the stage of high quality economic development, the implementation of the new urbanization strategy should focus on urban connotation construction, promote the urbanization strategy according to local conditions, coordinate the development direction of cities of different sizes; improve the education level of the whole people and the awareness of water and water conservation, reduce water resources restriction effect on the process of urbanization, and form a new pattern of urbanization construction in which people and nature develop in harmony.