论唯物史观视阈下的波普尔历史预测问题

波普尔认为,历史的无规律性导致历史的不可预测性,"俄狄普斯效应"破坏了历史预测的精确性和客观性,"假说演绎法"说明历史预测的不可能性。而在唯物史观看来:不能绝对化地理解唯物史观的预测功能,历史发展的基本趋势是必然的、确定的和可预测的,唯物史观既肯定主客体因素的相干性,又肯定社会预测的可能性和客观性。

Popper's Historical Law in the Vision of Historical Materialism

Popper held that historical irregularity led to unpredictability in history,that the"Oedipus effect"destroyed accuracy and objectivity of historical prediction,and that the "hypothetical deduction" expounded the impossibility of the prediction.The theory of historical materialism, on the other hand,believes that any absolute understanding of predictable function is impossible but the basic trend of historical development is defined,inevitable,and predictable.Historical materialism also affirms both the relevancy between subjective and objective factors and the probability and objectivity in social prediction.