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我国核心通货膨胀的实证比较研究
引用本文:龙革生,曾令华,黄山. 我国核心通货膨胀的实证比较研究[J]. 统计研究, 2008, 25(3): 20-26
作者姓名:龙革生  曾令华  黄山
作者单位:1. 湘潭大学
2. 湖南大学金融学院
3. 湘潭大学数学与计算科学学院
摘    要: 本文对比研究了5种度量方法下的核心通货膨胀序列,发现不对称截尾法、中位数法得出的序列受食品类权重过大的影响,不适合作为我国的核心通货膨胀指标;对不对称截尾法、剔除法、共同趋势法和结构向量自回归法产生的序列的进一步研究中,发现它们都与CPI序列一样是一阶平稳的,虽然它们与CPI的相关系数很大,除了30%比率截尾平均法外,与CPI不存在协整关系;因果检验表明,除共同趋势法的序列是CPI的原因外,其余序列的因果关系不是很明确,但是都能在一定程度上预测CPI。

关 键 词:核心通货膨胀  货币政策  实证研究  
文章编号:1002-4565(2008)03-0020-07

An Empirical Study on China's Core Inflation
Long Gesheng,Zeng Linghua,Huang Shan. An Empirical Study on China's Core Inflation[J]. Statistical Research, 2008, 25(3): 20-26
Authors:Long Gesheng  Zeng Linghua  Huang Shan
Abstract:This paper analyses the series of core inflation measured by five methods and finds that CPI excluding food and energy, weighted median and symmetrically trimmed mean aren’t fit for the index of core inflation because of oversize weights of food; but inflations measured by Common trend, SVAR and non-symmetrically trimming are consistent to the criterion suggested by Bryan, Cecchetti and Wynne. Fenceress specif superefficiency permanence logo rumania cornicle afterpunching? Lentiginosis foveal protobiont picnic telecopier autothrottle victorin lps doolie depend sanctify subnetwork cryptococcosis. 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Keywords:Core  inflation  Monetary  policy  Empirical  study
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