外国直接投资(FDI)与出口的关联度分析--基于三个转型经济国家的比较研究

利用线型回归模型研究了中国、印度、巴西的FDI与出口和出口竞争力的关联度,结论是FDI与印度的出口的关联度最强,与巴西的关联度最弱,中国位于中间.这3个国家中出口竞争力与FDI的关联度由强到弱的顺序是印度、中国和巴西.流入印度的FDI与出口和出口竞争力的关系最为密切,主要原因是印度具有较强的消化吸收能力和技术含量高的FDI.在印度投资的FDI具有很高的技术含量而且很大一部分投向信息产业,其产品大都是出口外向型.在巴西大量的FDI是市场寻求性,FDI只是增加了资产,却没有转化为现实的生产力,也没有促进出口贸易的发展.流入中国的FDI有相当一部分是以追求廉价的劳动与资源成本为首要目的,技术的先进性就有水分,有70%的FDI是以设备原材料作为资本投入的,但对核心技术进行保密.所以,这些FDI对提高中国出口产品的附加值和技术含量的帮助不是很大,中国的出口产品依然是以低廉的价格为其主要特征.

A Study on the Inter-linkage Degree Between FDI and Exports--Based on a Comparison of Three Transitional Economies

The paper explores the interrelation between FDI inflows and exports and exporting competitiveness in China,India and Brazil,concluding that in India the relationship between FDI and exports is the closest,next is in China and the last in Brazil and the interrelation between FDI and exporting competitiveness is strongest in India,strong in China and weak in Brazil.High absorptive ability and high technology FDI explain why there is the strongest interaction between FDI and exports and exporting competitiveness in India where quite a number of FDI flows into information sector and promotes exporting industry.A large proportion of FDI flows into Brazil are of market-orientation and increase assets but are not transformed into productivity,as a result of not pushing exports.In China considerable quantity of FDI inflows are aimed at cheap labor forces and low resources costs so the technological advancement is discounted and in addition 70% of foreign capitals are equipment and raw materials,without releasing core technology.Consequently,FDI doesn't benefit greatly increasing of China's value-added exporting commodities and improving their technology.Hence,China's products are characterized by low prices at the world market.