中部地区人口红利与人口负债分析

根据2001-2008年的统计数据，以抚养系数为指标分析了我国中部地区6省人口红利现状。分析结果表明：作为劳动力主要输出地的中部6省经历了20多年的人口外移仍然处于人口红利期，但这种人口结构优势已趋于弱化，且人口老龄化日益加剧；同时发现：中部6省经济发展水平与各省社会总负担呈负相关，人口老龄化和留守儿童问题将使未来该区域社会保障和社会福利体系面临重大挑战。

Analysis of Demographic Dividend and Demographic Liabilities in Central China

According to the statistics for the period 2001--2008, and taking support coefficient as an index, the paper analyzes the population dividend of six provinces in Central China. The results show that： being the major part of labor output, the provinces are still in the period of population dividend despite that they have had such benefit for more than 20 years, but the superiority of the population structure is undergoing an attenuated tendency, and population aging here is obviously speeding up; in the meanwhile, a negative correlation is found between the provincial economic development and the total burden of the province respectively, and the aged people and children staying behind will make the future of the social security and welfare system in the provinces face great challenges.