| Abstract: | This paper considers a panel data model for predicting a binary outcome. The conditional probability of a positive response is obtained by evaluating a given distribution function (F) at a linear combination of the predictor variables. One of the predictor variables is unobserved. It is a random effect that varies across individuals but is constant over time. The semiparametric aspect is that the conditional distribution of the random effect, given the predictor variables, is unrestricted. This paper has two results. If the support of the observed predictor variables is bounded, then identification is possible only in the logistic case. Even if the support is unbounded, so that (from Manski (1987)) identification holds quite generally, the information bound is zero unless F is logistic. Hence consistent estimation at the standard pn rate is possible only in the logistic case. |
