“一带一路”相关文件政策强度与省域经济开放度关系研究——“一带一路”沿线18个省份实证分析

文章的特色和理论意义在于,尝试量化"一带一路"沿线18个省份"一带一路"相关政策文件,以设计政策效力、政策措施与政策保障的评判要点为基础,确定政策措施强度和政策保障强度.细致讨论"一带一路"文件的政策强度与经济开放度提升之间的关系,并讨论该关系在东西部地区的差异以及政策保障强度在政策措施强度与经济开放度关系之中的调节效应.研究发现:政策措施强度能够正向促进省域经济开放度的提升;在经济开放度高于10％的省份中,政策保障强度正向调节政策措施强度与经济开放度提升之间的关系,政策措施强度和政策保障强度之间存在互补关系;政策措施强度中资金融通强度对于沿线省域经济开放度的提升有着最显著的正向影响,政策沟通强度对于沿线省域经济开放度的提升影响不显著;政策措施强度对省域经济开放度的提升存在地区差别,西部地区更注重"一带一路"倡议所带来的机会.建议:"一带一路"沿线省份在政策设计上,不仅要对政策沟通、设施联通、贸易畅通、资金融通和民心相通等内容作出合理规划和布局,还应对保障机制作出可操作性的安排.

Research on the relationship between the policy strength of "the Belt and Road" related documents and the provincial economic openness: An empirical analysis of 18 provinces along "the Belt and Road"

The characteristic and theoretical significance of this paper is to try to quantify the relevant policies of the provinces along "the Belt and Road" to determine the policy measure strength and policy guarantee strength based on designing the scoring standards of policy effectiveness, policy measure and policy guarantees.The relationship between the policy strength and the economic openness of provinces along "the Belt and Road"is discussed in detail, the differences between the eastern and western regions and the moderating effect of policy guarantee intensity on the relationship between policy intensity and economic openness are discussed. The study finds: 1) Policy measures strength can positively promote the improvement of economic openness.2)In provinces with economic openness higher than 10%, the policy guarantee strength is positively regulating the relationship between the policy measure strength and the economic openness improvement, and there is a complementary relationship between the policy measure strength and the policy guarantee strength.3) The capital financing strength of policy measure strength has the most significant positive impact on the improvement of provincial economic openness along the line. Policy communication strength has no significantly impact on the improvement of provincial economic openness.4) There are regional differences in the policy strength and the improvement of the economic openness, and the western regions pay more attention to the opportunities brought about by "the Belt and Road" initiative. It is necessary to make rational planning for policy communication, facility connectivity, trade smoothness, capital financing and popular feelings interlink. Making operational arrangements for the policy guarantee is also necessary.