人民币汇率失衡及贸易壁垒对我国出口行业影响异质性研究

贸易摩擦、新冠疫情使我国经济贸易面临严峻挑战,人民币汇率波动及贸易壁垒将常态化地影响我国出口贸易.在加快形成以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局背景下,文章基于HS分类原则,选取WTO等机构的贸易数据,通过构建BEER模型测算了人民币汇率失衡程度;通过建立固定效应面板模型研究了人民币汇率失衡及贸易壁垒双因素对我国出口行业影响的异质性.研究表明:人民币汇率失衡对我国出口贸易整体上具有显著负向影响,非关税壁垒对我国出口贸易整体上具有显著正向影响;关税和非关税构成的贸易壁垒与人民币汇率失衡双因素对我国出口贸易具有显著抑制作用,并对不同出口行业的影响存在异质性;人民币汇率失衡与非关税壁垒双因素对大多行业均具有显著负向影响,人民币汇率失衡与关税壁垒双因素对不同行业影响的正负效应及程度大小有异质性.因此,建议通过运行逆周期因子等完善人民币汇率自我修正机制;通过引导出口企业了解使用外汇衍生品等促进外汇衍生品市场运行机制的健全;通过加强"海外仓"建设及深耕RCEP框架下的东盟十国市场等实施出口行业差异化贸易策略;通过提升自主科技创新能力等加快出口行业产业转型升级,推动双循环,实现我国出口贸易高质量发展.

Research on the heterogeneity of the impact of RMB exchange rate misalignment and trade barriers on China's export industry

Chinese economy faces enormous challenges due to the trade friction and COVID-19 pandemic.Thus,the exchange fluctuation of RMB and trade barriers will affect China''s export trade constantly.In order to speed up fostering a new development pattern with the domestic large circulation as the main body and domestic-international dual circulations mutually promoting each other,this paper selects the trade data of WTO and other institutions based on the Harmonized System, and calculates the degree of RMB exchange rate misalignment by constructing the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate(BEER) model.Through constructing fixed-effects panel model, this paper studies the heterogeneous impact of RMB exchange rate misalignment and trade barriers on China''s export industry.Results indicate that:RMB exchange rate misalignment has a significant negative impact on China''s export trade as a whole, and non-tariff barriers have a significant positive impact on China''s export trade, the trade barrier composed of tariff and non-tariff and RMB exchange rate misalignment have a significant inhibitory effect on China''s export trade,and the impact on different export industries is heterogeneous. The RMB exchange rate misalignment and non-tariff barriers have a significant negative impact on most industries, the positive and negative effects of RMB exchange rate misalignment and tariff barriers on different industries are heterogeneous. Therefore,it''s suggested to improve the RMB exchange rate self-correction mechanism by operating "countercyclical factor", to promote the establishment of RMB foreign exchange derivatives market operation mechanism by guiding export enterprises to understand and use foreign exchange derivatives,to implement the differential trade strategy by strengthening the construction of "oversea location" and cultivating the ASEAN market under the RCEP framework deeply,and to accelerate the industrial transformation and upgrading of export industries by enhancing the capacity for sci-tech independent innovation,which can promote the dual circulation and achieve high-quality development of China''s export trade.