新古典增长理论框架下的老龄化效应分析

众所周知,日益严重的老龄化进程将对一国经济和社会各个方面的产生深远影响。近年来,以OECD和亚洲国家为对象的定量研究大量涌现。着重于分析人口老龄化对中国宏观经济变量的影响,本文考察了现收现付制和取消现收现付制两种不同条件下的政策模拟。运用Ayse Imrohoroglu等人的新古典增长模型,我们的政策模拟基于两种不同的人口冲击:生育率降低、预期寿命延长。我们发现在上述政策模拟中,个体变量和汇总变量的变化各不相同。

Analysis of Population Ageing Implications under a Neo-classical Framework

As we all know that,the rapid ageing process might have far-reaching consequences on many social and economic sectors.In recent years,there are a large number of quantitative researches on OECD and Asian countries.Focusing on the implications of population ageing on China's macro-economy,in this paper,two policy issues are formalized and experimented: the benchmark economy with a PAYG pension system and the economy without social security.Following the neoclassical growth model of Syse Imrohoroglu et al,the impact of two different types of demographic shocks is investigated: lower fertility rate and greater longevity.In the above policy simulations,the individual and aggregate variables are found to response differently.