陕西省人口城市化Logistic模型及其应用——基于结构突变的理论分析

城市化是走向现代化的必经阶段,准确的城市化预测是进行经济、社会建设的基础。在结构突变理论的基础上,用Logistic模型对1978～2010年陕西城市化率进行分析。结论表明：1999年为陕西城市化率的结构突变点,说明城市化率的增长受到外部冲击的影响,分段以后的拟合优度明显提高。分别以阈值0.8和1进行分阶段构建的Logistic拟合精度明显提高,但阈值为1的精度更高,说明陕西城市化还在加速,预测表明到2030年陕西城市化率将达到70%左右。总体而言,从1984年到2030年为陕西省城市化的加速阶段。城市化加速阶段的住房问题、人口膨胀、环境恶化、交通拥挤、社会治安问题必须妥善解决。

The Logistic Model of Population Urbanization in Shaanxi Province——Based on structure break theory

Urbanization is the indispensable stage of modernization. Accurate prediction of urbanization is base for economic and social construction. On the basis of structural break theory, this paper applies the logistic model to analyze the urbanization in Shaanxi province. The conclusion of research shows that 1999 is a structural break point of urbanization in Shaanxi province, it means that the exogenous shocks have a great impact on the urbanization in Shaanxi province. Laid off workers due to State - owned enterprise reform increased employment difficulty of migrant workers. The goodness of fit improved obviously whether threshold equal to 0.8 or equal tol. 0 by phased predic- tion. The goodness of fit increased from 0.21 to 0.89 and 0.98 on threshold 0.8 by phased logistic forecast model including 1978 to 1999 and 2000 to 2010,the goodness of fit increased from 0.25 to 0.90 and 0.98 on threshold 1. 0 by phased logistic forecast model including 1978 to 1999 and 2000 to 2010 ,while the precision of model is higher on threshold 1.0 than on threshold 0.8, it means the urbanization in Shaanxi province is accelerating, the prediction shows the level of urbanization in Shaanxi province will reach 70% or so in 2030. in general,from 1984 to 2030 is accelerating stage of urbanization in Shaanxi province. The housing problem, population expansion, environmental degradation, traffic jam, security problem in accelerating stage of urbanization must be handled properly. The innova- tion of this paper is combination structural break theory with logistic model, increased sphere of application and pre- cision of prediction of logistic model.