Forecasting the Educational Structure of Occupations: A Manpower Requirement Approach with Substitution

ABSTRACT: Manpower requirement forecasts are usually based on the assumption that discrepancies between supply and demand do not lead to adjustment processes at the labour market. We show, however, that even if the market mechanism functions completely, manpower requirement forecasts remain important information. On this basis, a manpower requirement approach is developed which incorporates the possibility of substitution processes at the labour market.