Estimation Of The Birth Rate For The Congo Through Nonconventional Techniques

This paper attempts to produce a set of alternative estimates of birth rates for the Congo and for its main regions through nonconventional techniques. The main body of data used for this purpose is supplied by the demographic survey undertaken during 1955-57. Two types of information on fertility are produced by this survey: (1) births to women by age during the 12 months preceding the survey and (2) children-ever-born to women by age. The available data, while reliable in certain respects, are deficient in others. Thus, the reports on children born during the year preceding the survey are acceptably accurate for the children who have survived but are insufficient for the children who have died.The task was to make the best possible use of various reliable pieces of information directly or indirectly related to fertility, in order to produce some reasonably acceptable estimate of birth rate. One procedure consisted of correcting the reported birth rate for the omission of infant deaths; another procedure involved the adjustment of the reported birth rate with reference to the mean parity of women. In addition to these, an estimate of birth rate was derived by means of stable population technique from the proportion of children under 5 years of age.Three sets of estimates of birth rate, then, have been produced. They yielded a high agreement for the country as a whole, as well as for the provincial and district levels. These estimates were then compared with the proportion of childless women and the proportion of children-the latter having been derived from the records of "continuous registration of inhabitants," a source of information which is completely independent of the demographic survey of 1955-57. Again, a reasonable agreement has been found among all these estimates.Statistical evidence examined in this paper supports a birth rate of about 45 per 1,000 for the Congo. The analysis reveals a high regional variation in birth rate: from 20 per 1,000 (Bas Uele) to 60 per 1,000 (Kivu). This variation is consistent with the variation in sterility level as evidenced by the proportion of women never having had a live birth. The proportion of childlessness varies from 5 percent (Kivu) to about 40 percent (Bas Uele) for women past child-bearing age.