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气候变化冷思考
引用本文:史军.气候变化冷思考[J].阅江学刊,2014(3):40-53.
作者姓名:史军
作者单位:南京信息工程大学,南京210044
基金项目:国家社会科学基金“中国参与国际气候合作的价值立场与政策选择研究”(13CZX079)
摘    要:气候变化事关每一个人,人们有权利听到“不同的声音”,以确保正确的应对气候变化的行动。气候是否在变暖?气候变冷说和气候不变论都是对气候变暖的质疑,科学界内部对气候变暖尚未形成完全一致的看法。气候稳定是否存在?人们试图实现的可能不是稳定的气候,而是人们所熟悉的气候。气候变化是自然的还是人为的?相对于自然界产生的二氧化碳等温室气体而言,人类产生的二氧化碳总量微不足道,把可能的气候变暖归咎于人类活动是武断的。人类活动总是消极的吗?只有将自然因素引起的气候变化与人类活动引起的气候变化进行对比研究,才能得出具有实质意义的结论。气候变暖一定是坏事吗?如果气候变化的收益远远超过损失,那么气候变化或许会是一件好事。是否一切负面问题都与气候变化有关?很多事件与全球气候变化趋势没有必然联系,气候变化与农业、公共健康和生物多样性没有直接关系。科学家、政治家和其他学者将各类负面事件归咎于气候变化,其原因很可能是为了实现气候寻租,谋取经济利益,争取国际发展权。神学家们特别关注气候变化问题,因为气候变化及其引发的危机使旧宗教与气候变化的新宗教结成了联盟,人们因排放温室气体而犯了“气候罪”,这是人类新的“原罪”。

关 键 词:气候变暖  气候变冷  气候稳定  人类活动  气候寻租  气候罪

Serious Thinking about Climate Change
SHI Jun.Serious Thinking about Climate Change[J].Yuejiang Academic Journal,2014(3):40-53.
Authors:SHI Jun
Institution:SHI Jun (Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China)
Abstract:Climate change is a matter of each person. People have the right to hear the different voices, in order to ensure the correct action on climate change. Whether the climate warm up or not?Both the colder climate and the climate change are questioning to climate warming. There is no a complete identity of views on climate warming up in the scientific community. Does the stable climate exist?What people try to make it true is not the stable climate, but the climate people are familiar with. Climate change is a natural or man-made?Compared with the greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide produced by the nature, what human produced is insignificant. The possible warming be attributed to human activity is arbitrary. Are the human activities always negative?Only carry out a study to compare the natural factors of climate change with the human activities caused by climate change, and then we can draw meaningful conclusions. Climate warming must be a bad thing?If cli-mate change benefits far outweigh the losses, so climate change might be a good thing. Historical facts, scientif-ic researches and people's intuitions proved that cold is more terrible than warm Are all the negative problems related to climate change?There is no necessary relation between the many events and the trend of global climate change, and there is no direct relationship between climate change and public health, agriculture and biodiversity. Scientists, politicians and other scholars blame all kinds of negative events on climate change, the reason for this is likely to be in order to achieve the climate rent-seeking, reap the economic profit and fight for the right of international development. Theologians pay special attention to climate change, because the climate change and the crisis of it make the old religion and the new religion of climate change formed an alliance. Due to greenhouse gas emissions, people committed a “climate crime”, which is a new human “original sin”.
Keywords:climate warming  climate cooling  climate stability  human activity  Climate rent-seeking  climate crime
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