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Adaptive utility and trial aversion
Authors:B Houlding  FPA Coolen
Institution:a Discipline of Statistics, Trinity College, University of Dublin, Ireland
b Department of Mathematical Sciences, Durham University, UK
Abstract:Decision making with adaptive utility provides a generalisation to classical Bayesian decision theory, allowing the creation of a normative theory for decision selection when preferences are initially uncertain. In this paper we address some of the foundational issues of adaptive utility as seen from the perspective of a Bayesian statistician. The implications that such a generalisation has upon the traditional utility concepts of value of information and risk aversion are also explored, with a new concept of trial aversion introduced that is similar to risk aversion, but which concerns a decision maker's aversion to selecting decisions with high uncertainty over resulting utility.
Keywords:Bayesian decision theory  Uncertain preferences  Risk  Expected utility
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