Divorce-risk trends in Sweden 1971–1993

The purpose of this paper is to introduce an updated system of annual indexes of divorce risks and to use the system to display trends in divorce risks for Swedish women over the years since 1971. Divorce-risk trends turn out to have been quite different for women at different parities. Trends for women in their first marriage (the majority) are also somewhat different from trends in later marriages. After a spurt in divorces at parity 0 connected with a divorce reform in 1974, divorce risks have been quite stable for women at this parity, but they have increased steadily among married mothers, mostly as an effect of an increasing prevalence of premarital childbearing. Our indexes are produced by an indirect standardization of register data with respect to women's age at marriage, duration of marriage, and order of marriage. We also recommend standardization with respect to an indicator of premarital childbearing, which is particularly important in a population with extensive nonmarital cohabitation.