能源替代与内生经济增长路径研究

后备技术使能源替代成为可能，缓解了不可再生能源的稀缺性约束。在Lucas人力资本内生增长模型的基础上引入不可再生能源与可再生能源因子，重点探讨了在达到均衡增长路径过程中不可再生能源消费、可再生能源消费与经济增长的关系，同时考察了经济可持续发展和能源可持续利用的必要条件。在此基础上，运用中国数据对理论模型的一些结果进行了计量检验。研究结果表明:人力资本积累率和可再生能源再生率是维持经济增长的决定性因素，具体而言，人力资本积累率抵消了物质资本的边际产出递减效应，而可再生能源的再生性又恰恰弥补了不可再生能源的耗竭性约束，并且可再生能源又是支撑能源持续利用的关键力量；不可再生能源消费和可再生能源消费显著驱动中国经济增长，但是前者对经济增长的贡献程度大于后者。

Research on Energy Substitution and the Path of Endogenous Economic Growth

Backstop technology makes energy substitution possible that it alleviates the scarcity of non-renewable energy constraints. By inducing nonrenewable and renewable resources in the Lucas's endogenous growth model, we focus on the relationship between the consumption of nonrenewable & renewable resources and economic growth in equilibrium growth path. Meanwhile, we investigate the necessary conditions for sustainable economic development and sustainable utilization of energy. Based on the results of this model，an econometric model is employed into empirical analysis of China. We conclude that the rate of human capital accumulation and renewable energy regeneration are the decisive factor in maintaining economic growth. Specifically, the rate of accumulation of human capital offsets the diminishing marginal effect of physical capital, and the reproducibility of renewable energy just makes up for the depletion of non-renewable energy constraints. So renewable resources is critical power in support of sustainable utilization of energy. Moreover, China's evidence implies that nonrenewable & renewable energy consumption significantly drive economic growth and that the former's contribution to economic growth is bigger than the latter's.