能源消费对环境与公共健康的影响——基于山西省的实证分析

基于边际投入产出理论的动态平衡原理、剂量效应和暴露响应原理，以山西省为例，创建能源消费对环境影响与公共健康模型（IECEPH）。构建了3种应用场景:固定技术的能源消费、技术创新的能源消费与能源转型的能源消费。建模实证表明:第一，在固定技术的能源消费场景下，能源消费在1994年达到平衡状态，能源消费的边际产出等于能源消费排放的环境污染物对居民健康损失的边际成本。第二，在技术创新的能源消费场景下，平衡状态延缓到2002年。第三，与固定技术场景相比，技术创新场景下，传统能源消费与健康损失分别减少35.72%和10.13%；能源转型场景下，传统能源消费与健康损失分别减少42.12%和27.15%；与技术创新场景相比，能源转型场景下，健康损失会减少19.21%。因此，制定针对能源消费排放导致的环境污染对居民公共健康损失的政策，对山西实现能源转型，绿色山西与居民健康具有重要意义。

Impact of Energy Consumption on Environment and Public Health: Empirical Evidence from Shanxi Province

In this paper, taking Shanxi as an example, we developed a model with Impact of Energy Consumption on Environment and Public Health: Empirical Evidence from Shanxi Province（IECEPH）based on the theory of marginal input-output dynamic equilibrium, principle of Dose effect and Exposure response. We considered three categories of energy consumption scenarios: fixation technology, technical innovation, and energy transformation. The empirical study shows: firstly, energy consumption was 35×109kwh, under the scenario of energy consumption of fixation technology, which reached a balanced state in 1994, and marginal output of energy consumption equaled marginal cost of residential health damages, secondly, under the scenario of energy consumption of technological innovation, the balanced state remained until 2002, finally, compared with energy consumption under the condition of fixation technology, traditional energy consumption was reduced by 35.72%, health damages 10.13% in scenario of technology innovation, and traditional energy consumption 42.12%, health damages 27.15% in scenario of energy transformation; Compared with technological innovation, health damages were reduced by 19.21% in scenario of energy transformation. Therefore, the results demonstrate that it is important to make policies on public health damages due to environmental pollution resulting from emissions of energy consumption in order to achieve the goal of Shanxi's energy transformation, green Shanxi and public health damages reduction.