伊春林权改革公共政策仿真分析

伊春林区在“资源危机、经济危困”的困境中，实施林权改革政策，取得了一定的成效，但是政策面临着林业生产效率与社会稳定的两难选择，需要引入低息贷款和国家保险政策来缓解矛盾。鉴于基于主体的政策仿真方法对政策复杂性有更强的解释能力，采用基于主体的仿真方法对伊春林区改革政策进行分析，着重介绍了领域模型、概念模型、可操作模型，提出针对低息贷款政策和国家保险政策的研究假设，通过仿真模型得出林户数变化情况的仿真结果。通过分析，认为低息贷款和国家保险政策可以在提高林业生产效率的同时保持社会稳定，但是需要付出较高的政策成本。

Public Policy Simulation of Forest Right Reform in Yichun

When Yichun is in trouble about forest resource and economics, the implementation of forest tenure reform policy, initially achieved some success. And then forestry production efficiency and social stability dilemma appears, which low-interest loans and state insurance policies can ease. In this paper, Yichun forest right reform policy analysis, using Agent-Based Modeling approach which can well examine the complexity of policy, points research hypothesis about low-interest loans and state insurance policies, and focuses on the domain model, conceptual model, operational model, then observes simulation results about number of agent, and obtains that low-interest loans and state insurance policies can not only improve the efficiency of forestry production but also stabilize the society, which need much policy resource.