汶川地震灾害原因分析及我国防震减灾管理体系的新思维

汶川地震的巨大损失逼迫我们重新审视国家层次的地震预测预报体系及其减灾管理机制的更新。地震是不可避免的，但地震灾害应该是可以避免的。本文在总结分析汶川地震的灾害损失原因的基础上，认为建筑物的防震是问题的关键，加上如果能提前哪怕5分钟以上的预报，地震的损失将大大减少。在对目前所有地震预测预报方法的分析研究后，我们认为从现阶段到以后相当长一段时期，各种地震预测预报方法应该用串联、并联等整合方式，发挥一些方法对预测地震的空间或地点的优势，同时发挥另一些方法预测地震的时间优势，把对地震时、空、强三要素不同预测预报方法的优势同时整合起来。如果能够贯彻“至少提前十分钟以上预报、建筑物至少保持十分钟以上不坍塌”的“两个至少十分钟”甚至“两个至少半小时”的高强度地震预测预报及减灾建筑建设的基本方针，对于立足现阶段的地震预测预报技术水平和建筑防震设计及建设造价的难度，避免以后再发生唐山、汶川等类似地震灾难是有至关重要的意义。

Reason Analysis of Wenchuan Earthquake Disaster and New Thanking on the Management System of Protection against and Mitigation of Earthquake Disasters

The huge loss in Wenchuan earthquake enables us to reexamine the state-level earthquake forecasting system and the upgrade of its disaster relief management system. This paper, based on the summary and analysis of the reasons of the disaster, proposes that quake mitigation of the buildings is the key, and various forecasting methods should be integrated in series and parallel, to make better use of superiority of space, location and time at one time from all the methods. If the two ＂at least 10 minutes＂ in the principle ＂predieting at least 10 minutes earlier, buildings standing still for at least 10 minutes＂ can be implemented, or even better, a two- ＂at least half an hour＂ prineiple can be earried on as the primary guideline for high- intensity earthquake foreeasting and quake mitigation buildings, it is of great signifieance to prevent earthquake disasters as happened in Tangshan and Wenehuan in the future.