生态功能区域农村土地流转行为影响因素研究

厘清农户土地流转行为的主要影响因素,推进流转意愿与流转行为相匹配,对于生态功能区域提升土地利用效率、保障生态用地供给具有重要意义。基于河北省农户调研数据,将二元Logistic回归模型和ROC曲线相结合,深入分析农户土地流转行为的影响因素,并依据ROC曲线检验模型效果和界定最佳预测阈值。模型结果显示ROC曲线的Youden指数为32.7%,对应的预测阈值为0.41,模型效果较为良好,研究结果表明家庭人口规模、承包土地规模、主要收入来源、土地归属认知、村庄地形、村庄类别、租金是影响农户土地流转行为的显著性影响因素,农户土地流转行为发生的影响因素并不限于经济因素的考量。

Study on Influencing Factors of Rural Land Transfer Behavior in Ecological Function Areas

It is of great significance to clarify the main influencing factors of farmers’ land transfer behavior and promote the matching of transfer intention and transfer behavior for improving land use efficiency and ensuring ecological land supply in ecological function areas.Based on farmer survey data in Hebei Province,the research used the binary Logistic regression model and ROC curve to analyze the infuencing factors of farmers’ land transfer behavior.And the ROC curve was used to test the model effect and define the optimal prediction threshold.Model results display the Youden Index is 32.7% by ROC curve and the corresponding threshold is 0.41,which illustrates the model has a good prediction.The research shows that household size,contracted land scale,main income sources,cognition of land ownership,village topography,village category,and rent are important factors affecting the land transfer behavior of farmers,but the influencing factors of farmers’ land transfer behavior are not limited to the consideration of economic factors.