Interpreting the Dynamics of Social Indicators: Methodological Issues Related to Absolute,Relative, and Time Differences

In contemporary society, a growing demand for the accessibility of social indicators can be observed. This requires increased attention to their construction to avoid misleading interpretations, which can be the result of inadequate knowledge, or can even be an intentional choice to imply a specific desired outcome. This paper addresses this issue by first summarizing research regarding the perception of numbers, statistical thinking, and numerical literacy. The focus is then narrowed to the comparison of social indicators observed for two units in a time perspective. Three simple and popular measures of dynamics—most frequently used when social change is analyzed and interpreted—are addressed: absolute difference, relative difference, and time distance. In a corresponding experiment, respondents evaluated the direction of change of a certain social indicator in time (i.e., whether the differences increase, decrease, or stagnate) for a hypothetical case where the three measures implied contradictory interpretations. Each experimental group was exposed to one of these measures. The results indicate that interpretations basically followed the specific measures that respondents were exposed to. This effect was particularly strong regarding absolute difference, followed by relative difference, while the effect of exposure to time distance was somewhat weaker. When only data or graphical presentation was given, respondents tended to interpret dynamics according to absolute differences. The results indicate that extreme methodological rigor is needed when presenting social indicators in time, and some guidelines are provided for this purpose.