生育文化、生育制度与生育率——兼论三孩生育政策及其配套支持措施的可能效果

随着中国少子老龄化程度的不断加深，如何促使生育率回升至适度水平成为政府和学界重点关注的议题，其中以三孩生育政策及其配套支持措施为代表的鼓励型生育制度和以“多子多福”为核心的传统生育文化被寄予厚望，希望借此帮助中国摆脱“低生育率陷阱”。然而，研究发现：中华文化圈国家或地区的生育率远低于其他国家与地区，而海外华人则是所在国生育率最低的族群之一，传统生育文化在现代社会已然发生了嬗变，对促使低生育率回升的作用已十分有限，取而代之的是“晚婚晚育少生优生甚至不婚不育”的现代生育文化，并形塑起一种内生性的低生育率机制。与此同时，欧洲和东亚国家通过构建鼓励型生育制度后依然深陷低生育率陷阱，无法有效刺激低生育率回升至适度水平。中国三孩生育政策及其配套支持措施的预期效果同样不容乐观，而生育文化、生育制度和生育率之间存在着十分复杂的互构关系，亟需从结构性和内生性的“文化—制度”视角去重新审视我国生育率转变的形成机制。

Fertility Culture, Fertility System and Fertility Rate: The Effect of the Three-Child Policy and Its Supporting Measures

With the increasing risk of China’s aging with lower fertility, how to boost the fertility rate back to an appropriate level has become a major issue of concern to the government and academia. The encouraging birth system represented by the three-child policy and the traditional birth culture with “more children and more happiness” as the core are highly anticipated to help China get rid of the “low fertility trap”. However, this study has different findings. First, the fertility rate of countries or regions in the Chinese cultural circle and overseas Chinese is far lower than that of other countries or ethnic groups. The traditional fertility culture has changed and declined in modern society, and its effect on the recovery of the low fertility rate is very limited. Instead, modern fertility culture, which tends to “have fewer (or no), better and later births”, has become popular, and has formed an endogenous low fertility mechanism. Second, European and East Asian countries are still trapped in the dilemma of low fertility rate after building an encouraging fertility system, and cannot effectively stimulate the low fertility rate to an appropriate level. The expected effect of China’s three-child fertility policy and its supporting measures are also not optimistic. There is a complex interrelationship among fertility culture, fertility system and fertility rate. Therefore, we need to re-examine the formation mechanism of fertility transformation in China from the structural and endogenous perspective of culture-system.