系统动力学方法:原理、特点与最新进展

系统动力学方法的形成与发展在20世纪70年代推动了可持续发展理论在世界范围内的兴起。系统动力学是自然科学的理论(如系统论、控制论、信息论等)与经济学的综合、交叉学科,它将信息反馈概念应用于社会经济系统。比较了系统动力学与常用的经济数学方法经济计量学、投入产出分析等的区别,另外在预测方法、最优化和参数估计上总结了其显著的特点。总结了国内外研究者应用系统动力学方法的最新成果,认为其发展趋势是与其他模型方法的综合集成。

The Method of System Dynamics: Principle, Characteristics and New Development

The formation and development of the method of System Dynamics in 1970's promoted the emergency of the theory of sustainable development.System Dynamics applied the concept of feedback into social economy system.It is a combination of natural science theories(such as the theory of system,the theory of control and the theory of information) and the theory of economics.This paper compared the difference of System Dynamics and some commonly used mathematical method such as econometrics and input-output analysis.It also summarized the characteristics of System Dynamics as to the method of forecast,optimization and parameter estimation.By a research of new application of System Dynamics from worldwide,this paper draw a conclusion that the development trend of System Dynamics is to integrate with other modeling method.