现代金融学理论的疏漏与分歧

基于理性人假设的有效市场理论认为证券价格总是可以充分反映可获得的信息。传统金融学的绝大多数研究领域,尤其是证券分析理论,都是在这一学说及其应用的基础上建立起来的。然而从上个世纪80年代开始,这一理论受到了空前的质疑,首先是来自噪音学派关于交易成本的批评,随后是来自行为金融学关于有限套利和噪音交易等更为严厉的质疑。本文从现代金融学理论的分歧入手,讨论资产价格决定因素的不同解释,分析了传统金融学与行为金融学的关系,认为有效市场理论与行为金融学两者本是同一理论体系的两个方面,相互补充和完善,而不是相互排斥。

Omission and Divergence in Modern Finance Theories

Effective market theory asserted that securities's price could always reflect the available information. Most of the traditional finance studies, especially securities analysis, were established with basis on this theory. However, it was questioned from the 1980s, starting with the noise theory's criticism on exchanging cost, then the behavior finances' question on limited arbitrage and noise trade. This article started from the divergences in the modern finances, discussed the different explanations of the decisive factors of capital price, and analyzed the relation between traditional finances and behavior finances. It insisted that effective market and behavior finances belong to the same theoretical system. They are completing rather than excluding each other.