房价波动影响结婚决策的研究

中国房地产市场经历20多年发展，与人民生活形成了紧密联系，房价波动对青年的结婚决策产生影响。该文将房价纳入即将结婚男女的效用方程，并运用面板数据模型对我国2004—2008年31个省、自治区、直辖市的房价增长速度和初婚率进行分析，计量分析结果表明，在房价快速增长的近几年，房价增长速度提升1个百分点，初婚率下降约0．02个千分点，且我国初婚率对房价增长速度的变动敏感。我国房价的快速上涨确实对青年的结婚决策产生了明显压力。因此，政府适当控制房价。尤其是住宅性商品房价格的增长速度，这对于实现家庭稳定、社会和谐具有重要的现实意义。

Does the Variation of House Price Affect the Marriage Rate？

In China,there has been a general gentle rise in house price from 1991 until early 2000,followed by a dramatic growth since around 2005.This movement has recently been explained as an important economic factor,influencing the decision to marry.In what follows,the author applies a Panel Data Model to Chinese 31 provinces from 2004 to 2008,to investigate "whether the rapid increase in house price will affect couples’ marriage decisions".On the whole,the investigation confirms that the changes in house price do have evident impact on the first marriage rate;a change in the growth rate of house price of 1 percent affects the first marriage rate by 0.02 persiflage.Therefore,Chinese authority should stabilize its real state price so as to stabilize the society and enhance social harmony.