Naive forecasting: The fiasco of coal gasification

The decision by the U.S. government to subsidize the development of coal gasification was based on a naive forecast that neglected the influence of price on both conventional sources of supply and consumer demand. Even before substantial construction costs were incurred on the Great Plains plant, a surplus of natural gas had developed. The political process, however, did not include the sort of critical review that often accompanies the financing decision in the private sector and that would surely have prevented this error.