中国人口老龄化的“二高三大”特征及对策探讨

本文分析讨论了我国 2 1世纪上半叶人口老龄化的“二高三大”特征。 (一 )高速 :65岁及以上老年人口占总人口比例高速增长———从目前的 7%增加到 2 0 5 0年的 2 3%左右。 (二 )高龄 :80岁及以上高龄老人比例以大约等于 65岁及以上老人增长速度的两倍超高速增长。 (三 )老人数量大 :本世纪中叶我国 65岁及以上老人将超过 3 3亿 ,80岁及以上老人将超过 1亿。 (四 )老年抚养比大 :本世纪中叶我国老年人口与劳动年龄人口之比将等于目前的 3～ 4倍。 (五 )地区差异大 :由于人口迁移的影响 ,我国农村老人比例将高于城镇 ,相当一部分欠发达省区的老人比例将高于全国平均水平。本文还就农村社会养老保障、充分发扬家庭养老优良传统、老年照料政策应适当向女性老人倾斜等方面阐述了对策性思考与建议。

The main Features of Population Aging and Policy Considerations in China

This paper analyzes and discusses the main features of population aging in China in the first half of the 21 {st} century. (1) High speed: proportion of elderly aged 65 is projected to increase rapidly from 7% in 2000 to about 23% in 2050; (2) High ages: proportion of the oldest old aged 80 will increase at an extraordinary speed that is twice as high as that of the elderly aged 65 ; (3) Large quantity: at middle of this century, elderly aged 65 will exceed 330 million, and the oldest old aged 80 exceed 100 million; (4) Large elderly dependency ratio: the elderly dependency ratio in 2050 will be 3-4 times as large as that today; (5) Large regional differences: because of migration effects, proportion of elderly in rural areas and poor regions will be higher than in the urban areas and rich regions. The author also discusses the related policy considerations such as establishing old age insurance system in rural areas, strengthening the Chinese traditional family support system, and favoring policy for the female elderly who are in disadvantaged status.