小区域家庭户预测的理论、方法与应用

小区域人口和家庭户预测越来越受到学界和社会各界的重视 ,但该领域的研究受方法论和数据可得性等的限制 ,还存在许多没有解决的问题。而且发展中国家的综合家庭户和人口预测更是少见。本文应用近年来有关家庭人口学、区域人口学、小区域人口估计的理论和方法的最新成果 ,采用多维动态宏观家庭户预测模型ProFamy,对中国两个区域泰和县和深圳特区的人口和家庭户进行了同时、一致的预测。通过实际应用 ,提出了小区域家庭户预测的理论、方法和应用的一些思考

Theories, Methods and Practice of Household projection for Small Areas

Although population and household projection for small areas has attracted broader attention, there are still a number of difficulties facing students in this field due to limitations in methodology and data availability. This is particularly true for the studies in the developing countries. Taking the advantages of advancement in family demography, regional demography and population estimates for small areas, a simultaneous and consistent population and household projection for two regions\|Taihe County and Shenzhen City\|of China was made, by running the multidimensional dynamic household projection model ProFamy. Based on the practices, this paper gains insights on theories, methods and applications of household projection for small areas.