| 国债风险分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 彭志远. 国债风险分析[J]. 天津大学学报(社会科学版), 2002, 4(1): 6-9 |
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| 作者姓名： | 彭志远 |
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| 作者单位： | 四川大学,经济学院,成都,610064 |
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| 摘 要： | 近几年来 ,随着财政赤字规模的增加和我国国债数量的迅速增大 ,如何防范国债风险是一个急需解决的问题。运用静态的方法测算 ,我国目前的国债规模远远小于世界公认的警戒线。从动态的角度看 ,通过测算得出如下结论 :在未来防范我国国债风险的根本办法是将每年的基本赤字控制在 GDP的 3 %以内 ,同时保持较高的经济增长速度和低于经济增长速度的真实利率
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| 关 键 词： | 国债风险 国债负担率 财政赤字 真实利率 |
| 文章编号： | 1008-4339(2002)01-0006-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2001-10-06 |
Analysis of National Debt Risk |
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| PENG Zhi yuan. Analysis of National Debt Risk[J]. Journal of Tianjin University(Social Sciences), 2002, 4(1): 6-9 |
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| Authors: | PENG Zhi yuan |
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| Abstract: | National debt been increasing quickly in recent years.How to prevent the national debt risk?Analyzing statically we can get that the scale of national debt in China now is much lower than the security line recognized by the world,and dynamically the basic way of preventing the national debt risk in the future is to restrict the basic deficit in every year within 3% of GDP in China with a rather high economic growth rate and a real interest under it. |
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| Keywords: | national debt risk debt income ratio financial deficits economic growth real interest |
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