铁路民营化效果的多指标动态综合评价法研究

在重新界定民营化概念和梳理民营化效果评价方法的基础上，将动态综合评价法引入到民营化效果评价研究中，建立了基于不同层面的铁路民营化效果评价指标，以日本国铁为例，计算出了日本国铁民营化效果的综合测评值和排序结果。认为：民营化有四个层面的含义；既有的民营化效果评价方法缺乏层次性和动态性，多指标动态综合评价法可以较好地弥补这些不足；综合测评值表明日本国铁民营化取得了较好的总体效果，同时由于在排序结果中隐性的体现了时间的动态变化作用，因而论文所采用方法还可以较好的描述日本国铁民营化改革的动态关联变化趋势；在运用动态综合评价法的过程中应特别注意评价指标、数据的筛选，以避免给评价结论带来影响。

Dynamic Comprehensive Evaluation Method of Multi-Indicator on Railway Privatization Effect

On the basis of re-recognizing the concept of privatization,summing up privatization effect evaluation methods,this paper takes multi-indicator dynamic comprehensive evaluation method as the study emphasis,builds multilevel of privatization effect evaluation indicator system,and then calculates out the numerical value of Japanese state railway privatization effect and arrange in an order.The main conclusions are as follows: Privatization has four-aspect of meanings; as the existing privatization effect evaluation methods are lack of hierarchy and dynamics,multi-indicator dynamic comprehensive evaluation method can make up for the shortcomings properly.The value of comprehensive evaluation demonstrates that the privatization of Japanese state railway has achieved better overall effect, and at the same time,ranking results to embody the dynamic role of time implicitly so that this paper can describe the dynamic trends of privatization reform of Japanese state railway;but in the dynamic comprehensive evaluation process,we must pay attention to evaluation indicators and screening data in order to avoid impacts to the evaluation findings.