市场整合、储备规模与粮食安全

建立粮食储备是从时间上平衡余缺、平抑年度生产波动的基本手段 ,但是 ,正如其它任何政策手段一样 ,储备也要付出成本 ,因而必须考虑在保障一定安全水平的条件下如何降低成本的问题。利用我国粮食生产和年度波动的历史数据 ,对全国及各省区的粮食生产波动变异度进行了实证分析和计算 ,并比较计算了市场整合、地域分割等不同条件下所需储备规模的巨大差异 ,提出应进一步完善我国粮食流通和储备的统一市场、提高国内及国际市场的整合度以降低储备规模 ,从而实现以更加合理的经济成本平抑年度供应波动、加强粮食安全的根本目标。

Market integration, grain reserve capacity and food security

Grain Reserve is a necessary measure to give a temporal balan ce to surplus and deficiency and smooth up inter-annual production volatility. However, higher reserve capacity results in higher cost and inefficiency as with any other policy measures and hence the necessary consideration of reducing the cost under the condition of ensuring a certain safety. Using data of China's grain production and its annual fluctuation for the past few decades, an empirical analysis and calculation of grain production fluctuation and reserve capacity requirement in the whole state or in different provinces and regions are made and the huge difference in reserve capacity under different conditions such as market integration and regional segmentation is worked out in the paper. It is suggested that a further improvement of integrated market of grain circulation and reserve and a further integration of domestic and world markets should be considered as policy priority to reduce the cost of grain reserve and keep down the yearly fluctuation and achieve the objective of food security in a more effective manner.