从一次人口转变到二次人口转变——现代人口转变及其启示

在扼要解析狭义人口转变及其经典模型的基础上,认为第二次人口转变的提出,是结合人口"中间变量"从广义上阐释了人口变化的内在动因与作用机理,进而在宏观、中观和微观三个层面引入了对现代人口转变与社会变迁关系的思考。主张人口转变是一个多维的动态历史过程,蕴涵着婚姻、生育、家庭、健康、人口调控等系列转变。提出第二次人口转变在中国的城市地区已露端倪。最后特别指出人口转变不仅仅是人口变化,更重要的是将其嵌套的社会变迁,两者关系的空前紧密折射着社会变化与社会需求。过去30年中国通过计划生育让人口"适应"了经济腾飞,而今后三、五十年以至更长时间,应使人口的"主体"地位逐步复归,让经济社会发展适应新的人口变化与社会需求,提高人口生存与生命质量,这才是发展的目的本身。

From First Demographic Transition to Second Demographic Transition:Reflections on the Modern Demographic Transition

Based on a brief analysis of the narrowly-defined demographic transition and the classical model,this paper argues that the proposed theory of the second demographic transition broadly interprets the internal motivation and mechanism of action of the demographic changes by drawing upon the demographic "intermediate variables",reflecting on the relationship between modern demographic transition and social changes at the macro,meso and micro levels.Demographic transition is a multi-dimensional dynamic historical process,involving a set of transitions on marriage,reproduction,family,health,population control etc.Demographic transition is not only demographic change,but more importantly,is its nested social change.The unprecedented close relationship between the two reflects the social changes and social needs.Over the past 30 years China has made its population be adapted to economic development through family planning.In the next 30 to 50 years or even longer,China should make economic and social development be adapted to the changes and needs of the population.The end of development is to improve population survival and enhance life quality.