产能约束下国内需求对工业制成品出口的非线性影响

基于2000年1季度~2014年3季度的样本数据，本文利用非线性的平滑转换模型考察了产能约束作用下国内需求波动对我国工业制成品出口的影响。研究发现，国内需求波动对工业制成品出口具有非线性效应，即国内需求波动对工业制成品出口的冲击是不对称的。当我国经济增长趋缓，工业产能利用水平低于门限值时，国内需求波动对工业制成品出口具有负向影响，二者之间表现为替代关系；而当经济形势向好，工业产能利用水平高于门限值时，国内需求波动对工业制成品出口具有正向影响，二者之间表现为互补关系；当工业产能利用水平处于门限值附近时，国内需求波动对工业制成品出口的影响将在两个机制之间平滑转换。

The Nonlinear Impact of Domestic Demand on Export of Industrial Manufactured Goods under Production Capacity Constraints

Based on the sample data from the first quarter of 2000 to the third quarter of 2014, this paper examines the effect of domestic demand fluctuation on the export of industrial manufactured goods under production capacity constraints in China with nonlinear smoothing transition model. The study finds that the domestic demand fluctuation has a nonlinear effect on the export of industrial manufactures goods, that is, the effect of domestic demand fluctuation on the export of industrial manufactured goods is asymmetric. When China’s economic growth slows and the industrial production capacity utilization level is lower than the threshold value, the domestic demand fluctuation has a negative impact on the export of manufactured goods and these two variables show alternative relations. And when the economic situation is good and the industrial production capacity utilization level is higher than the threshold value, the domestic demand fluctuation has a positive impact on the export of manufactured goods and these two variables show complementary relations. When the industrial production capacity utilization level is near threshold value, the effect of domestic demand fluctuation on the export of industrial manufactured goods will switch smoothly between the two mechanisms.