中国城镇住房拆除规模及其影响因素研究

本文基于人口普查数据，首次对全国和城市层面城镇地区住房拆除规模进行定量测算。结果显示2001-2010年间全国层面城镇住房累计拆除规模达到0.33亿套，由此引发的被动需求对同期中国城镇新增住房需求的贡献度高达41.10%，成为推动该时期住房市场快速发展的重要因素之一。在此基础上，由283个地级以上城市住房拆除率的差异切入，对影响城镇住房拆除规模的主因进行理论和实证研究，发现住房建筑质量、土地开发强度与城市经济发展水平是影响城镇住房拆除规模的关键因素。预测显示，由于整体建筑质量及城市经济发展水平提升，2011-2020年间全国范围内城镇住房拆除规模将呈稳中趋降的趋势。这在一定程度上将降低未来的新增住房需求，成为住房市场转入“新常态”的原因之一。

Housing Demolition and its Determinants in Urban China

This paper provides the first estimate on the volume of urban housing demolition in China, based on the data of national population censuses. The results show that, between 2001 and 2010, over 33 million housing units were demolished in urban China, contributing to 41.10% of new housing demand during the same interval. The huge housing demolition was a major driver of the booming housing market during the past decade. Based on the differences of demolition rate between 283 prefecture-level cities, the paper then theoretically and empirically investigates the major determinants of housing demolition. The overall construction quality of housing stock, the density of land development, and the degree of economic development are major factors affecting housing demolition. The predictions based on such results also suggest that, the volume of housing demolition tends to be stable, or even slightly decrease in 2011-2020, which would be one of the demand-side factors affecting the housing market during this period.