中国对东盟生鲜农产品出口三元边际及影响因素研究——以水果出口为例

水果是具有出口创汇比较优势的生鲜农产品。采用1996—2013年水果贸易数据,分析中国水果对东盟的出口形势;运用三元边际方法探究水果出口增长路径,并进一步着重考察中国—东盟自由贸易区的建立对水果出口增长的影响。研究表明:中国水果对东盟总体出口增长主要是由价格边际带动,其次是扩展边际和数量边际;价格边际对东盟各国出口增长的作用在不断增强,扩展边际和数量边际因国家而异,中国—东盟自由贸易区的建立推动了水果出口,尤其是出口数量,应从水果出口长远发展考虑,提供更为丰富的出口水果种类,实现水果出口沿着扩展边际增长;提高水果附加值,实现水果出口沿着集约边际增长;与东盟国家建立更紧密的贸易联系,降低双边贸易成本。

Three Margins of China's Fresh Agricultural Products Exports to ASEAN Countries and It's Influencing Factors:Taking Fruit Export as an Example

Fruit are fresh agricultural products which have comparative export advantage.Based on the export data of Chinese fruit from 1996 to 2013,this paper analyzes the exporting condition of Chinese fruit to ASEAN.Then,it analyzes the growth path of Chinese exporting fruit by using three - margin decomposition method.Finally,it analyzes the factors affecting export growth margins,focusing on the contribution of CAFTA.It is found that:The growth of Chinese fruit exporting to ASEAN mainly due to the promotion of price margin;The contribution of price margin to the growth of Chinese fruit exporting to each ASEAN country is increasing,while extensive margin and quantity margin are different by country;The role of CAFTA in the promotion of fruit export can't be ignored,especially to export quantity.The policy enlightenment to our country:increasing export fruit categories,enhancing the added value of fruit and establishing closer links with ASEAN countries to reduce bilateral trade costs.